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| After 11 consecutive aggressive rate hikes by the Fed from March 2022 to July 2023, the target range for the US federal funds rate has risen to between 5.25 percent and 5.5 percent. Radhika Desai, visiting professor at the London School of Economics, says high interest rates will suppress market vitality and trigger crises. US interest rates have now reached a high level that resembles that of the 2008 subprime crisis, and "the recession is essentially imminent." | 在2022年3月至2023年7月美联储连续11次大幅加息后，美国联邦基金利率目标区间已升至5.25%至5.5%之间。伦敦政治经济学院客座教授拉荻卡·德赛表示，高利率将抑制市场活力并引发危机。目前美国利率已达2008年次贷危机时的高位，“经济衰退迫在眉睫”。 |
| The US economy is now showing signs of slowing. The July jobs report was softer than expected, with the unemployment rate rising for the fourth straight month — sparking a market sell-off and heightening fears of an impending recession. | 美国经济现在显示出放缓的迹象。7月份就业数据低于预期，失业率连续第四个月上升，引发了股市抛售，加剧了人们对美国经济衰退即将到来的担忧。 |
| In light of recent economic developments, J.P. Morgan Research has raised the probability of a U.S. and global recession starting before end-2024 to 35%. “US news hints at a sharper-than-expected weakening in labor demand and early signs of labor shedding,” said Bruce Kasman, Chief Global Economist at J.P. Morgan. | 鉴于最近的经济形势，摩根大通研究部将2024年底之前美国和全球经济衰退的可能性提高到35%。摩根大通首席全球经济学家布鲁斯·卡斯曼表示：“美国的市场信息暗示，劳动力需求的疲软程度高于预期，并有裁员的早期迹象。 |
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